Simple Univariate Time Series Models ------------------------------------ Utilities: Forecaster.scala -- Base Trait for Forecasters with Vector Input RollingValidation.scala -- Rolling Validation for Forecasters Stationarity.scala -- Unit Root Tests for Time Series Stationarity Stationarity_KPSS.scala -- Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) Test for Stationarity Baseline: NullModel.scala -- Null/Mean Model: y_t = mean RandomWalk.scala -- Random Walk/Last-Value Model: y_t = y_t-1 MovingAverage.scala -- Simple Moving Average Model: y_t = mean of last q values TrendModel.scala -- Linear Trend Model: y_t = a + b t Simple Models: SimpleExpSmoothing.scala -- Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Model: s_t = α y_t-1 + (1-α)s_t-1; y_t = s_t QuadSpline.scala -- Quadratic Spline Model: y_t = y_t = a + b t + c t^2 AR.scala -- Auto-Regressive (AR) Model: y_t = δ + φ_1 y_t-1 + ... + φ_p y_t-p ARMA.scala -- Auto-Regressive, Moving-Average (ARMA) Model: y_t = δ + φ_1 y_t-1 + ... + φ_p y_t-p + θ_1 e_t-1 + ... + θ_q e_t-q